By Tom Bradley

In the economic discourse of today, the camp that says we’re going into the tank has lots of ammunition. You don’t have to go past the front page of the newspaper to know we’ve got issues. For those arguing that we’ll be OK, or at least not have a severe recession, it’s tougher sledding. They have some good points to make (emerging economies will carry us, inventories are down, Japan is bouncing back, the U.S. housing market has nowhere to go but up, corporate balance sheets are strong, etc.), but these points are being overwhelmed by the negative headlines.

I like to cheer for the underdog, but I don’t like the fact that the ‘we’ll be OK’ camp is regularly justifying its position by referencing what’s going on now. We’re not going into recession because:

“Demand is good right now. Order books are still solid.”

“Corporate profits are outstanding this quarter. They’re coming in ahead of expectations.”

“With rates so low, real estate is still moving.”

As consumers of financial information, we have to be careful to not get caught up in the ‘right now’ arguments. Right now doesn’t matter when it comes to capital markets. Mr. Market is always looking ahead. He could care less about conditions today.

I’m more in the ‘we’ll be OK’ camp than that other one, but I take no comfort from the fact that right now car sales are good, iPads are flying off the shelf and restaurants are busy.