By Tom Bradley
In his letter this month, Bill Gross of Pimco talks about the cure to all our ills – growth. As he says, “No country has enough of it.”
In discussing the prospects for economic growth, Mr. Gross does a good job of capturing the challenges we face.
“The lack of growth ... is structural as opposed to cyclical, and therefore relatively immune to interest rate or consumption stimulative fiscal policies. 1) Globalization, 2) technological innovation, and 3) an aging global demographic have all combined to dampen policy adjustment post Lehman and will inexorably continue to work their black magic going forward.”
He goes on to point out that another structural impediment, high debt levels, is also a barrier to growth.
Our managers (and I) aren’t spending a minute trying to figure out whether we’re heading into another recession or not, but we are factoring into our forecasts a slower, bumpier economy.