By Tom Bradley

Located in Vancouver and being the sports (analogy) junkies that we are, readers would expect us to go crazy with Olympic stuff. Certainly there are obvious connections between Olympics and investing - the value of time; the notion of risk and reward (the topic of my last post); having the right equipment; and getting good help from coaches, mentors and technicians. I could go on, but the analogy that most resonates with me (always) is the unpredictability of investing and sport.

Manuel Osborne-Paradis was a gold medal hope for Canada in the downhill. He was one of the favourites and the spotlight was shining brightly on him. When Manny didn’t win, it was a huge disappointment, but hardly a surprise. The odds of the favourite winning in the downhill are pretty low (with the exception of the Franz Klammer days) given that many variables are at work while even the slightest errors are magnified greatly.

The spotlight often shines too brightly on the favourite athlete or trend while there’s lots going on in the shadows that can impact the outcome. It is often in those shadows that the opportunities lie.

Kristina Groves represents one of those other possibilities lurking in the shadows. She unexpectedly skated to a bronze in the 3000 meter speed skating race. It was not her favourite distance, so she wasn’t expected to medal, but she is one of the best in the world, was skating well coming into the games and was on home turf.

As investors, we too often get locked into a view or trend that influences everything we think and do. More than any other profession I know, success is not defined by where the consensus is pointing or what’s in the spotlight.

In the meantime, let’s go back to the spotlight where it now looks like the Men’s hockey team doesn’t have a chance. GO UNPREDICTABILITY GO!