We are not a big firm and don’t talk to thousands of investors on a daily basis, but Chris, Scott and I do talk to a fair number. From our conversations, there is one theme that recurs constantly. I DON’T WANT ANY OF MY MONEY IN THE U.S.!

In the investment world, when a view is so widely and passionately held, it is noteworthy for a number of reasons.

First of all, it means the issues are well known. In this case, America’s problems are front page news (deficits, dollar and derivatives … and Bush). If the U.S. economy is weak in the coming year and the dollar declines, no one will be surprised.

Second, the degree of consensus is not a good indicator of what the final outcome will be. It may be right, but often when everyone is expecting one thing, the opposite proves to be the case.

And finally, and most importantly, a strong consensus means that the balance between reward and risk is out of whack, or 'asymmetrical.' In other words, if the consensus proves to be right, there is little money to be made because the outcome was widely anticipated. On the other hand, if the consensus is wrong and investors are positioned for it, the rewards can be substantial. Investors like Warren Buffett don’t necessarily go looking for bets against the consensus, but when their actions have run counter to the herd, the rewards have been huge.

I don’t know when the U.S. market is going to make investors money again, but to not own any U.S. securities is a big bet. In the words of Peter Bernstein, “If you are comfortable with everything you own, you're not diversified."