Cutting Through the Noise
February 19, 2014
I see it all the time – people unwilling to invest in stocks because of the debt situation in the United States, Europe, China or Canada, the economy’s dependence on central bank stimulation or China’s slowdown. Their hesitation may pay off one day, but ...
Read MoreFebruary 14, 2014
I just came out of a team meeting in which the question was asked - How are client conversations going with regard to re-balancing? For clients who have not touched their portfolio in a year or more (and aren’t in the Founders Fund), it’s likely that their ...
Read MoreFebruary 13, 2014
From a post I did in October: Whenever I go through a government budget document, I’m always struck by how similar governments are to low (profit) margin, debt burdened companies. Small changes to the inputs into the budget calculations can have ...
Read MoreFebruary 12, 2014
It’s a great time to be a homer. Who isn’t pulling for Canada to do well in Sochi – Alex and Mik, the sisters, 3-2 over the Americans this morning ... Canadians have lots of experience being homers, because they’ve done it for a decade now in their investment portfolios. Even though Canada accounts for only 4-5% of the value of the world’s stock markets, it makes up the vast majority of individuals’ portfolios ...
Read MoreFebruary 4, 2014
I’ve been remiss in doing a follow-up to an article I wrote for the Globe and Mail a few weeks ago (clients come first). In it I made the point that ETF sales in Canada have been disappointing, despite all the hype and favourable press. As it turns out, the piece ...
Read MoreJanuary 24, 2014
There are times throughout the investment cycle when people want more precision. They want to know what the market is going to do this year, or even this month. These moments most often come in January when year-end investment reports and media coverage are full of predictions for the next year. The need to know also arises after ...
Read MoreJanuary 23, 2014
The improvement in the financial position of our defined benefit pension plans was the biggest economic highlight of last year. As we pointed out in a post two weeks ago, the change has been dramatic. Higher bond yields, healthy stock returns and increased ...
Read MoreJanuary 22, 2014
Don Tapscott, the highly-regarded business thinker and writer wrote an article for Monday’s Report on Business (Note: David is taking me to hear him speak at University of Toronto next week). In it he previewed the annual mixer for the world’s business ...
Read MoreJanuary 20, 2014
Exchange traded funds (ETFs) are the most talked about product trend in the wealth management industry. I’m not sure what comes second, but it’s not even close. An overwhelming majority of commentators and bloggers recommend indexing with ETFs ...
Read MoreJanuary 15, 2014
What a year 2013 was. Everybody’s portfolio was up (or almost everybody), and most were up a lot. It was an unusual year, but not only because of strong returns. For Canadian investors, a barbell shape may best describe the 2013 results. On one ...
Read MoreJanuary 14, 2014
JP Morgan Chase reported its earnings yesterday. The company had a good quarter (US$5.3 billion), although it was down a little from last year due to charges related to legal and regulatory settlements. The Financial Times reported that JPM, "took another ...
Read MoreJanuary 10, 2014
The Canadian economy is a real conundrum to me. Clink - Real estate sales have returned to previously robust levels and prices have recovered nicely from the lull in 2012 (if you can call it that). Clink - Canadians bought 1.7 million new cars last year, which ...
Read MoreJanuary 9, 2014
If 2013 was a great year for the markets, it was a stupendous year for pensions. Aon Hewitt published a report last week that shows the progress pension funds made in 2013 in resolving their funding issues. “The latest quarterly survey of more than 275 Aon Hewitt administered pension plans from the public, semi-public and private sectors ...
Read MoreJanuary 3, 2014
Bill Gross doesn’t need my help. The PIMCO Founder and Co-Chief Investment Officer is the undisputed bond king. He oversees a $2 trillion company and has been right many more times than he’s been wrong. But an article in today’s Financial Times on the ...
Read MoreDecember 23, 2013
We hear it all the time in conversation with our partners and friends: “They say the market is going higher … they say Regina house prices are going down next year … or they say the Canucks have a shot at the Cup.” When you hear “they say”, it’s a signal that ...
Read MoreDecember 13, 2013
A long stock market run goes through many phases. There’s a healthy debate going on right now as to where this one is at – does it have further to go, or is it over? In assessing where we are, it’s useful to look back at how things unfolded over the last four and a ...
Read MoreDecember 12, 2013
With the release of Malcolm Gladwell’s new book, David and Goliath, there’s been lots of talk about big versus small. In the Money Managers edition of Benefits and Pensions Monitor, Jeff Brown wrote an article pointing out that in the asset management business ...
Read MoreDecember 9, 2013
We had a meeting last week to kick start preparations for our winter client tour, ‘Where to from here’. The discussion came around to performance reporting. When we start the tour in Winnipeg on January 27th, the 5-year returns will no longer include 2008 and...
Read MoreDecember 3, 2013
In this space, we talk often about how sensitive the housing market is to interest rates. In Tara Perkins’ article on real estate in the Report on Business the other week, there was a story about a young woman who was buying her first home. It was very revealing...
Read MoreNovember 26, 2013
There was a telling chart in last weekend’s Wall Street Journal. It showed the market predictions of Wall Street strategists for each year going back to 2000. The chart shows no discernable pattern or trend that would imply that the predictions are in any way useful. There...
Read MoreNovember 20, 2013
By 2016, mutual fund firms and investment dealers will be required to tell their clients what they’re paying and how they’re doing. Our country’s provincial regulators have also initiated discussions as to whether investment advisors should be held to a higher...
Read MoreNovember 14, 2013
Over the last year or so, there’s been a growing trend towards combining indexing with paid advice. It’s coming up more in the media, and is a common solution in the financial advice columns – ‘hire an advisor to manage an ETF portfolio’. The well-followed...
Read MoreNovember 12, 2013
“In the 1960s and 1970s, mid-western American states fell victim to scores of wildfires. Constant interventions by the US Forest Service appeared to have little positive impact – if anything, the problems seemed to worsen. Over time, foresters came to appreciate...
Read MoreNovember 11, 2013
What now? Stock markets have been on a roll and investors who’ve been leery about owning stocks are now wading back into the risk pool. With good returns comes confidence. In the face of this better vibe, it’s important that investors don’t stray from...
Read MoreOctober 31, 2013
It’s been a dramatic year in the capital markets. Interest rates moved up meaningfully in the spring and stocks have been on a roll all year. Indeed, U.S. and international stocks have been going up steadily for two years. Enough has happened that it’s time...
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