Cutting Through the Noise
December 24, 2010
Hindsight bias: The inclination to see events that have occurred as being more predictable than they were before they took place. That’s Wikipedia’s definition of a behavioural weakness we all have. We take credit for having seen something...
Read MoreDecember 22, 2010
Howard Marks of Oaktree Capital Management is one of my favourite market analysts. In a letter published last Friday, he takes on the topic of gold. It’s a wonderful piece and a must read for anyone who is interested in the shiny metal. There are too many pearls...
Read MoreDecember 17, 2010
Our funds paid out their distributions to unitholders yesterday. As a reminder, distributions represent the mechanism whereby the funds transfer to unitholders any interest and dividend income and realized capital gains they accrued over the year...
Read MoreDecember 15, 2010
Although 2010 is coming to an end, we’re left with a lot to remember (and forget), including the Vancouver Olympics, the European debt problems, the vuvuzela, the iPad, the HST controversy in B.C., and the gloomy economic forecasts. While it was an eventful year in business, politics and sports, it was another busy and productive year in the shop as well. In this year's Holiday Letter, we reflect...
Read MoreDecember 10, 2010
We’re going through another wave of consolidation in the asset management industry. Last summer, Sceptre Investment Counsel merged into Fiera Capital. More recently, CI Financial bought Hartford’s mutual funds, Bank of Nova Scotia made an offer for DundeeWealth...
Read MoreDecember 10, 2010
We've compiled four years of Tom's articles and blogs into a new book titled It's Not Rocket Science: Plain-English Advice for Managing Your Investments. The pieces are short narratives that reinforce some of the basic, yet most important, principles of investing...
Read MoreDecember 8, 2010
"We’ve priced this product to do well in the marketplace … it’s the right product for the times …” - Martin Nel, vice-president of personal bank lending and investment products, Bank of Montreal. I’m sure there are readers who wonder why we write so negatively about...
Read MoreDecember 3, 2010
Is it a long-term trend or an investment truth? In my last Globe and Mail column (Much-maligned Greenback is Looking Increasingly Cheap), I held this question up to a number of economic factors - the declining supply of oil, China’s growth, Japan’s...
Read MoreDecember 2, 2010
There was a story in the ROB today about how Prem Watsa’s investment acumen has made a huge difference to the Sick Kids Hospital Foundation. By reducing equities to 35% of the portfolio in 2007, the foundation held up well when markets were...
Read MoreDecember 1, 2010
Here are a few quotes from the comments posted on the Globe and Mail's website following my column on the U.S. dollar: “... with a spendthrift administration and Helicopter Ben clearly willing to throw as much increasingly worthless paper as is...
Read MoreNovember 29, 2010
The year-end distributions for all our funds (with the exception of the Savings Fund) will be declared on December 15th and paid on December 16th. The Savings Fund will pay its regularly-scheduled monthly distribution on December 31st. As a reminder...
Read MoreNovember 26, 2010
In investing, it’s easy to mistake a transient trend for an eternal verity. Right now, for instance, many investors are tacitly assuming that China will grow at 10 per cent forever. Same goes for the notion that we’re running out of oil, that gold is the best store of...
Read MoreNovember 20, 2010
Tom will be on Business News Network (BNN) on Monday morning (November 22) at 9:15 AM eastern time (6:15 AM PST). Later in the day, he'll be sitting in with Amanda Lang and Kevin O'Leary on The Lang & O'Leary Exchange, which airs at 7:00 PM...
Read MoreNovember 18, 2010
My posting last week (A Simple Risk Management Tool to Avoid the Next Bubble) garnered lots of comment. In one of the kinder emails, a reader asked what weaker performing assets I would consider to be an attractive balance to the current high flyers...
Read MoreNovember 17, 2010
In response to my post last week, a friend and former partner, Dan Lewin of Lewin Capital Management, sent me a clip on gold. It came from a conversation between Ben Stein and Warren Buffett for Fortune magazine. When asked, "What about gold? Is this a classic bubble or what?", the Oracle of Omaha responded with the following...
Read MoreNovember 12, 2010
It’s only been 18 months since the nadir of our once-in-a-lifetime financial crisis, but it feels like we’re already forgetting some of the lessons learned. I’m referring to the fact that, in this market full of cross currents, we have another major asset class getting...
Read MoreNovember 11, 2010
In his monthly letter, Bill Gross, the Managing Director of PIMCO and acclaimed ‘King of Bonds’, suggested that the Federal Reserve’s QE2 announcement last Wednesday (the second round of Quantitative Easing) “will likely signify the end of a great...
Read MoreNovember 10, 2010
When there is a message on voicemail for me to call my bank, I ignore it. I didn’t used to, but I do now. In the past, if I got one of those calls, it was because I was overdrawn or someone in Des Moines was using my credit card. There usually was something I needed to know or deal with. The urgency of the call was appropriate. In...
Read MoreNovember 8, 2010
Last week a friend asked me what his daughter should do with her mortgage. The bank was giving her the option of going with a variable rate mortgage at 2.85% or a 5-year fixed at 3.5%. Investment professionals get asked this question all the time by friends...
Read MoreNovember 4, 2010
As I outlined in an earlier post, we feel that our fee reduction program is unique in rewarding clients who entrust more of their money with us, and who keep it with us for an extended time. In this posting, I’ll delve in to some of the gory details of how we...
Read MoreNovember 4, 2010
At the risk of alienating some of our clients and my Bay Street friends, I admit to being happy that the BHP takeover of Potash Corp was turned down. I keep wondering if it’s just my prairie roots (I want desperately for Saskatchewan and Manitoba to have...
Read MoreNovember 3, 2010
Account statements from most Canadian mutual fund companies are so bad that splashing a little colour on the document can propel you to the top of the list. Never mind features that clients are really interested in like performance and fees, just add a little...
Read MoreNovember 2, 2010
In recent years I’ve had the pleasure of getting to know Danny Bubis, President and Chief Investment Officer of Winnipeg-based Tetrem Capital Management (anyone from my home town is a great person). Tetrem manages private and institutional...
Read MoreOctober 29, 2010
Whenever one investment theme, strategy or person is in the spotlight, it’s important to look in the shadows for a different perspective. That’s because as voices get louder and more confident, a consensus emerges that makes it harder to find the...
Read MoreOctober 22, 2010
David Rosenberg, the economist, is bearish on the economy and he’s very persuasive. His view is that we’re heading into a period of subdued growth at best, and another recession at worst. His 2011 earnings estimate for the S&P 500 is $75, well below...
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